The most-traded SHFE tin contract pulled back quickly after a slight rise during the night session. Demand in the consumer electronics market was suppressed as tin prices rose overall. [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on January 30, 2026:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2603) opened slightly higher in the night session and continued to rise, reaching a high of 469,950 yuan/mt before falling sharply during the session and closing at 436,720 yuan/mt, down 2.04%.

Macro: (1) Earlier reports suggested that SpaceX and xAI might consider a merger, but the latest reports indicate that SpaceX is evaluating two options. According to informed sources, SpaceX is also considering a merger with Tesla. This suggests that Musk is weighing how to consolidate his business empire. Sources said the company has explored the feasibility of collaboration between SpaceX and Tesla, with some investors pushing for the idea. Other sources stated that before an IPO, SpaceX is also exploring a merger with xAI. Sources revealed that any deal could attract strong interest from infrastructure funds and Middle Eastern sovereign investors. The transaction may also require significant financing. Sources noted that SpaceX has not yet made a final decision, details may change, and the companies may decide to remain independent. Tesla's stock surged 4.5% in after-hours trading on Thursday. (2) The General Office of the State Council issued the "Work Plan for Accelerating the Cultivation of New Growth Points in Service Consumption." It promotes innovation and development across the entire chain in the automotive circulation and consumption sector, selects pilot cities, supports pilot initiatives in key areas of the automotive aftermarket, accelerates the removal of restrictive measures, explores tiered and classified management of automotive modifications, improves the certification system for classic cars, strengthens the construction of RV camping bases, and researches and improves relevant management systems and technical standards. It enhances international cooperation, develops automotive culture, supports the construction and operation of automotive museums, encourages the hosting of related events and activities, and fosters cross-border integration innovation projects combining automotive with tourism, culture, sports, etc. It promotes high-quality development of minibus and car rental services, improves the rental service network, cultivates and strengthens business entities, and enhances rental service levels. It further promotes the development of self-drive tourism, improves transportation conditions for self-drive tours, and creates a safe, comfortable, and convenient travel environment for self-drive tourism.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply side: Most smelters are expected to maintain stable production in January. (2) Demand side: Downstream procurement remains cautious, with high prices significantly suppressing actual consumption.

Spot market: Traditional pre-holiday restocking orders have not seen increased volume due to high prices. Demand in the consumer electronics market is suppressed by the overall rise in metal prices. Although the PV sector has short-term expectations of an export rush due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, high raw material prices significantly weaken order growth. Overall consumption support is limited, and the spot market remains sluggish.

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